Showing posts with label senbatsu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label senbatsu. Show all posts

Friday, June 21, 2013

Sasshi Is Center and (almost) Everything Is Bliss


If you had asked me six months ago whether or not I thought Sashihara Rino was going to rank #1 in the 5th Senbatsu Election, I would have laughed until I was choking for air.

In fact, I recall writing in my year-end megapost for 2012 how I doubted Sasshi would ever have a chance for a huge push again. Let's see, what wording did I use again? "The transfer wrecked any chances for Sasshi to be the new center of AKB48 after Maeda Atsuko's graduation and she hasn't had the same attention or pushing ever since." In fact, I think I spent most of the tail-end of 2012 thinking that Sasshi's career as an idol was pretty screwed over. Yeah, looking back, I can't get over how fantastically ironic my prediction for Sasshi's future in 2013 would be. Then again, it wouldn't be the first time I was ridiculously off about a prediction! When the preliminary results for the election came out this year, I think everyone was a little taken aback at Sasshi's jump to #1. However, there wasn't full-on panic (not yet at least) since after all, a lot can change from prelims to the actual results. When I first saw the prelims, I too was surprised that Sasshi ranked #1, especially since I would have thought she'd be going down this year. And while I was hopeful that someone besides Yuko/Mayuyu/Paruru would have a chance at being center, I also tried to remain rational. It was only the first day and I've been through enough Senbatsu elections to know that the final results can and will change from the first day. I was mostly certain that Oshima Yuko would easily get #1 as always, but Sasshi's vote count did plant a little seed of hope in me that the 5th Senbatsu Election might be different this year. And here we are with Sasshi firmly planted at #1 and more than 10,000 votes ahead of Yuko. Of course, Sasshi's ranking wasn't the only surprise of this year's election, but we'll get to those in a couple paragraphs. I just can't believe that Sasshi really did it. From #9 to #4 to #1... it's quite surreal to see her ranked at the top! I honestly thought that Mayuyu or Yuko had a better chance of ranking #1! But nope, Sasshi, the wotagei, scandal-inflicted, transferred idol got it! Of course, everyone was reeling over the results, with fan reactions ranging from hyperactive joy to fire-burning rage and everything in-between!

But honestly... I think Sashihara Rino is what AKB48 needs as a center.

And no, I'm not saying that as a fan of Sasshi. She's not even my favorite AKS member. Granted, I've always kind of liked her, but nowhere near compared to say Akimoto Sayaka or Minegishi Minami. After Sasshi's scandal, my interest in her kind of waned since I didn't see much of a point in following an idol who was clearly getting screwed over by a nonsensical dating scandal that was probably blown way out of proportion. Still, as the year went on and AKB48's songs got suckier, I did start to lament that the scandal happened to her. After all, who knows what AKB48 would have looked like had Sasshi not been transferred to HKT48. But alas, she did, and suddenly, Sasshi's push to the front of AKB48 just... stopped. Sure, she was still in AKB48's Senbatsu, but it was like she'd taken two steps back. Yet I still couldn't help but wonder what would have happened if Sasshi had been pushed as center instead of Mayuyu or Paruru. Most of all, I wondered how AKB48's music would have been affected had Sasshi had been pushed; would it have been better? I've made it clear as filtered water that I have been in a musical rut with AKB48 since Gingham Check; I think all of their A-sides have been incredibly bland and unoriginal. They've been lacking that... spark that was usually there when Acchan was in AKB48. I don't know if it's because Acchan graduated or AKS is too scared to do anything too different for fear that it won't make money or Aki-P got abducted by aliens and replaced with a robot double but whatever it is, I just haven't been into AKB48's music the way I used to be. So even though I know it might be huge shot in the dark but... I think AKB48 needs a new center, and I feel like Sasshi can be that new center. Not Yuko, not Mayuyu, not Paruru, but someone who has never, ever been center before: Sasshi. I don't know if her being center will even affect the music output at all, but part of me hopes that maybe, just maybe she will.

Or maybe I'm being idealistic again. I don't know! Right now all I know is that I am extremely happy and extremely that Sashihara Rino is going to be center for at least one AKB48 single! And you know what's great about it? The fact that so many fans wanted her to be center, enough to boost her rank to number 1! I think it's amazing that despite the scandal and the transfer, Sasshi somehow managed to turn things around and make the best of her situation. In a weird way... I think that "scandal" (if you can even call it that) helped Sasshi out in the long run. And yeah, yeah, I know that management probably helped a lot too by not firing Sasshi and appointing her as manager of HKT48, but I still think it's amazing that Sasshi bounced back so fantastically. It gives me hope that maybe someday Miichan can bounce back from her scandal too... but that's a topic for another post. What makes me most excited about Sasshi as center of AKB48's next single is the sheer unpredictability it'll bring to the table. In other words... what the hell is the 32nd single going to sound like? A quirky and weird song to match Sasshi's quirky and weird personality? An ode to wotadom and idols? A insipid bland song that sounds like all the other A-sides AKB48's been getting lately? Yeah, I hope it's not that one, but I'm still going to keep it in mind as we get closer to details being revealed for the 32nd single. I don't know, right now I feel like there are so many possibilities that can happen with Sasshi as center over say, Paruru or Mayuyu. I don't know what those possibilities entail, but I hope it's something good. And I hope that Sasshi can live up to the position that's been given to her! Well, I figure she'll be able to but still! What I like about Sasshi is the fact that she just seems to really genuinely love being an idol along with her love for idols in general. She's open about her love for idols such as Morning Musume, and it's very... refreshing.


Of course, the Senbatsu election hasn't completely brought rainbows and flowers. It also brought forth a graduation announcement, and a big one too. Most of you probably know by now, but when 1st Generation member Shinoda Mariko was announced as 5th, during her speech, she announced her graduation. And honestly, when I woke up the next morning and found out, I think my stomach dropped. I literally did not see this coming. Like if you'd asked me who I thought was going to graduate next in AKB48, Mariko would have been far, far down the list. Hell, I even made a joke in one of my latest PV reviews about Mariko never graduating from AKB48! I mean... wow. I know it's been over a week since the Senbatsu election, but I still haven't gotten over the fact that Mariko will be gone from AKB48 in just over a month, along with Tomochin and Sayaka... Yeah, the graduation dates for those three idols were all announced. Mariko will be graduating on July 21st, Sayaka on August 22nd, and Tomochin on August 25th. Obviously, Sayaka's graduation is the one I'm dreading the most, but I can't say I'm looking forward to Mariko's either. I guess she has had a long, glorious run in AKB48, and she is getting older. There are a lot of other professions Mariko may want to take on, and if she wants to pursue something else instead of AKB48... then the best of luck to her! Still, I can imagine July and August are going to be very, very painful months for many an AKB48 fan. But hey, at least Maeda Atsuko's appearing at one of AKB48's concerts! Yep, AKS just can't seem to let her go, can they? I have nothing against Acchan, but I'd prefer her to keep doing her own think outside of AKB48. Really the only reason I'm a little excited about Acchan's appearance is the fact that a new unit will also be announced on the same day. About time too! All the current sub-units are pretty much kaput what with all the graduations... Well, many changes are a-coming to AKB48. Whether they're be for better or worse, only time will tell. Personally, I hope they're for the better; I'd very much like to get out of the rut I've been in with AKB48.

For now, let's take a quickie look at just who makes up this year's elected Senbatsu this year!

16. Suda Akari - Oh, so the bottom of the Senbatsu is a random SKE48 chick whom I have no idea about? Oh goody! It's a repeat of the Janken Senbatsu all over again! I'll be honest, I don't follow SKE48 that much an can only count the number of members I know and recognize on on hand. As you may have deduced, Suda Akari is not one of members I am familiar with! Well, I'm a little more familiar with her now! I looked her up on the Stage 48 Wiki and apparently, she's been regularly featured in SKE48's Senbatsu since 1!2!3!4! Yoroshiku! So I guess she must be pretty popular to rank so high in the Senbatsu Election. Well, Akari, I may know nothing about you but congrats on going from #29 to #16!

15. Watanabe Miyuki - Does anyone else find it kind of hilarious that both Milky and Sayanee climbed at the same rate and Milky landed one spot behind Sayanee just like last year's election? Anyone? Well, the faces of NMB48 said that their goal was to make it into Senbatsu for this year's election and by golly, they did it! It probably helps that Milky's in concurrency with Team B and Sayanee's captain of Team N and just... Sayanee in general. I'll admit, Milky's kind grown on me in the past year and I think she's a very charming an entertaining idol, even if her schtick feels a tad bit forced at times. It's still awesome that she was able to climb out of Undergirls and break into the lower part of Senbatsu though!

14. Yamamoto Sayaka - How appropriate for the captain of Team N to rank in the Senbatsu this year! Last year, Sayanee was one of the girls that I really wanted in Senbatsu (and I thought she'd get in) but like Milky, she just barely missed it. Still, Sayanee persevered on in both her team and in her singles with AKB48 and it looks like her hard work paid off! Sayanee's always been one of my favorite captains from any of the AKS groups; the only captain who trumps her for me is Takamina! Then again, it is Takamina so yeah... I like that so many team captains got into Senbatsu. Now if only Umeda Ayaka had been able to rank just a little bit higher... not that I'm mad about her (very high) position in Undergirls either!

13. Yokoyama Yui - Ah, what's a Yokoyama Yui Senbatsu speech without copious amounts of tears and emotion from Yui herself? I will say though I don't think the speech from this year was quite as blubbering and teary as the past two elections. Still, Yui was as grateful as always for her ranking and it's strangely heartwarming to see her get so emotional over her ranking! I've always liked Yui so I think it's great that she's climbed a little bit in ranking this year, even if it isn't a terribly high climb! I've always found it odd that despite the huge push she gets, her ranking never gets super high but it's still great that she's going up a little bit every year with each Senbatsu Election!

12. Shimazaki Haruka - I have to admit, I wasn't that surprised that Paruru ranked somewhat low in the Senbatsu despite a colossal push from management. You know how I said in some AKB48 review several posts back how Yokoyama Yui had gotten the same promotion Paruru had but it didn't have a huge effect on her position in the Senbatsu Election? I was kind of thinking that Paruru's rank would parallel Yui's and hey, I was right! But can we all talk about the look on Paruru's face!? The girl looked like she was gonna cut someone! I don't think I've ever seen Paruru look so... emotional! It was a little scary! Still, from #23 to #12 is still an impressive achievement!

11. Itano Tomomi - My heart kind of sank when I found out Tomichin ranked even lower than last year despite graduating this year. I mean, I've never been a huge fan of her or her music but I still can't help but feel a little bad that she ranked so low in her last single in AKB48. It would have been a little nice if she'd been able to go out of AKB48 with a slightly higher ranking, you know? Still, with all the pushes of the newer generation, it must have been hard for Tomochin to rank high enough. I will say, her comment about "I always hated this Sousenkyo," really does hit home, especially when you think about how it's basically pitting the girls against another in a giant, televised popularity contest.

10. Miyazawa Sae - All right, one rank up for Sae! You go Sae! I can imagine that this past year has been pretty rough for Sae with Sayaka graduating, her transfer to SNH48, the trouble of actually being in the group what with all the uneasy relations between Japan and China right now... but it's nice to know that she's still got what it takes to rank so high in the Senbatsu Election! I actually think that her concurrency might have helped her get a few more votes, the same way it did with Sasshi! Speaking of that, during her speech, Sae announced that she was rejecting the concurrency Aki-P thrust upon her to devote more time to being in SNH48! So yeah, you go Sae!

9. Kojima Haruna - So as I predicted, Harunyan went down. I can't say I'm too surprised but hey, she's still in the top 10! What I noticed from the 2nd to 4th elections, she and Takamina always switched places! Like when Takamina was #6, she was #7 and vice versa! Yeah. I just thought that was kind of interesting. I actually don't have too much to say about Harunyan's ranking since I'm not a huge fan of her. I mean, I like her and all; I just don't follow and/or notice her very much. Still, she seems like a very nice person! And I like her in no3b alongside Takamina and Miichan! It's a shame that all three of them aren't in Senbatsu this year. But oh well, it's nice that Harunyan still got a pretty good ranking!

8. Takahashi Minami - Like Tomochin, I was bummed that Takamina ranked so low in Senbatsu. Well, I guess "low" is pretty subjective because if someone like Fujie Reina or Umeda Ayaka ranked this high, I'd be jumping up and down with joy. But it's Takamina! It just feels a little odd with her out of the Kami 7, even if it is by just a little bit. I'd think with her solo single she'd have ranked a bit higher but I suppose not. I think Takamina's freaking awesome, definitely one of my favorite members of AKB48, and one of if not the best leader I have ever seen for an idol group. She's always had a very sweet, unintentionally hilarious personality and I'm happy that she's remained a staple of the Senbatsu!

7. Matsui Rena - Wow. It dawned on me while I was writing this post that both Rena and Jurina are in the Kami 7. It's just... kind of surreal. In fact, almost half the members in the Kami 7 aren't even from AKB48 for this year's election! How weird is that? Rena and Jurina went up the same way Milky and Sayanee did, side by side with Rena ranking just below Jurina again! Funny how that parallel's last year's election... and 2nd election. It makes sense, considering Rena is one of the faces of SKE48 alongside Jurina and now the captain of Team E of SKE48! I can't say Rena's one of my favorites but I do like her and I think she has a very nice voice! I think she makes a nice addition to the Kami 7!

6. Matsui Jurina - And I think Jurina fits nicely in the Kami 7 as well! I've always liked Jurina; I admired just how much effort she puts in both SKE48 and AKB48, even if she works a little too hard at times. I also think it's amazing how far she's come from the 11-year old center of Oogoe Diamond. I definitely think Jurina's earned such an honorable spot on the Senbatsu from all the work she's put into juggling two teams at once! So going through the list, I just realized that there a lot of girls from different groups in Senbatsu this year. Well, a lot in comparison to previous elections; the highest number of girls from other teams has been two. But this year? There are six in the Senbatsu. How crazy is that?

5. Shinoda Mariko - I think my stomach dropped when I read shortly after finding out the results of the election that Mariko was graduating from AKB48. I mean, I know it was coming since she is 27 and has been in the group since it started but still. It's Shinoda freaking Mariko, how could anyone want her to graduate!? She always joked about how she was never leaving the group no matter how old she got and the fans always joked she would in the group until she was 40 but... I guess not. It's nice to know that Mariko still has the popularity she had from the day she was a waitress too busy to audition for AKB48. #5 is a great ranking to go out on, but I'll definitely miss Mariko in further elections!

4. Kashiwagi Yuki - I'm always surprised at how high Yukirin ranks at each election. Mainly because she doesn't get that much promotion in AKB48 singles (in comparison to say, Mayuyu, Jurina and Paruru) yet she still always maintains a pretty high position in the Senbatsu Election. True, she went down this year but only by one rank. I'm actually kind of happy that Yukirin is out of the top three, mainly because she doesn't really appeal to me that much. I don't know, I guess I just find her to bland. She's an okay idol an all, but personally I like the top three of this year's Senbatsu much better than last year's! Still, congrats to Yukirin for staying afloat amongst all the other idols getting bigger pushes than her!

3. Watanabe Mayu - Speaking of the top three, let's start with el numero tres, none other than Mayuyu the Fantastic Creeper! From what I've heard around the idolsphere, fans (or at least foreign fans) were pissed when they found out that Mayuyu only ranked at #3. Like I'm talking done with AKB48-type pissed. And it was highly entertaining. I was a bit taken back too that Mayuyu went to #3, especially since she's gotten such a huge push this year. She didn't even have a close gap with Yuko; the latter still got over 30,000 more votes than she did. Personally, I think the top three is nothing to complain about, and I don't think Mayuyu works very well as a center in AKB48. Overall, I have no problem with her ranking!

2. Oshima Yuko - Man, can you imagine the tension in that stadium when it came down to the final two rankings of the election? Between Yuko and Sasshi, unless by some fluke an obscure member of AKB48 managed to jump into the top two. Personally, I thought Yuko had this election in the bag the same way she did last year for Gingham Check but nope, I guess she didn't! I'd just never pegged Sasshi to be the one to take the #1 spot. But we'll get to her in a minute! When I was watching Yuko's speech, I noticed how she seemed much happier and more at ease than previous years; I don't even think she cried! In fact, I think she was both amused and okay with Sasshi getting #1. I'm happy she's still in the top three though!

1. Sashihara Rino - And here's the #1 girl herself, Sashihara "Fuck you, Shunkan Basho" Rino! I already spent a few paragraphs talking about how happy I am that's she's number 1 so I'll just paraphrase what I said up there. It was a pleasant surprise to find out that Sasshi, the idol who started from the bottom, rose to the top, only to be knocked back to the bottom, was able to get the #1 spot. It's refreshing to see someone besides Yuko/Mayuyu/Paruru have the opportunity to be center, especially someone like Sasshi! She has such a vibrant personality and enthusiasm for her career as an idol that I can't help but feel really happy for her! Now I'm excited to see how her Senbatsu single will turn out!

Right now, I'm really looking forward to this year's Senbatsu single. I don't know if it's because I'm still high off the results of the election, but I just feel like this year's song is going to be something new and different! And I really hope that's the case! For the first time, I'm really hoping that the A-side produced this year is something that isn't bland. Okay, I've been saying that same thing for the past few singles from AKB48, but this time, I really feel like there's something to hope for. Sasshi has never been a center for AKB48, and I think that's what the group needs right now. Not Yuko, not Paruru, not even Mayuyu but a completely new person to be center. After all, Aki-P said that he writes his songs around the center, so hopefully it'll be a song to reflect the best parts of Sasshi's personality. Like her love for idols, the wota side of her, her ability to adapt to new situations and make the best out of things... there are so many directions that this single could go, and I'm so excited to see what happens. I'm kind of thinking that Sasshi's song will be the kind of song that's an ode to idols and wotadom, but then again, Sasshi's song could be a lot of things! As long as it's not Soredemo Suki da yo. I can't stand that song. I guess I'm a little nervous too that I'm raising the bar too high and the song's going to suck. Yeah, I really hope that doesn't happen. Part of me doesn't want to get too hopeful in case Aki-P decides to whip out another half-assed, bland piece of shit, but then another part of me feels like there are now possibilities. New ones that will take AKB48 to places it's never been before! Well okay, maybe not that dramatic of possibilities but still! So guys, now that the election hype is dying down, are there any upsets you had with this years Senbatsu Election? Any surprises? I didn't exactly give much attention the the Future/Next/Undergirls so any happy surprises or upsets with them? Are you looking forward to the next single as much as I am or hiding under a rock and waiting until it's over and done? Feel free to comment!

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Ue Kara Sashiko!


Well. This is an odd turnout.

Most of you are aware that a few days ago, AKB48's summer single, Sayonara Crawl, hit stores all over Japan and with it the chance to elect girls for the upcoming Senbatsu election. As per traditional summer singles, already Sayonara Crawl has sold millions of copies despite being a very shitty song, and the single has established itself as yet another million-seller for AKB48. Whoop dee freaking doo. Yeah, you all know I'm not exactly on good terms with AKB48 right now, especially regarding their musical output. But I'm going to refrain from talking about that again; I've been regurgitating that complaint for all my past AKB48-related posts lately! Besides, we're here to talk about the most nerve-wracking, nail-biting, rage-inducing annual event that always rocks the AKS fandom: the Senbatsu Elections. You all know the shtick by now: by buying an AKB48 single (in this case, Sayonara Crawl), fans have the opportunity to vote for a member of any of the 48 groups so she has a chance be in the Senbatsu for the group's next single. The girls who get the most votes make it to Senbatsu, leaving all the other girls to linger on the benches crying and questioning their self-worth! Ah, sometimes I forget just how much it would suck to participate in an election like this! Kind of like running for student government only it's mandatory and your votes are ranked and broadcasted for all of the student body to see! Well, as morally questionable and traumatizing and potentially stressful as the annual Senbatsu Election most likely is to our lovely AKB girls, it has always been a spectacle for fans. Why not? Even I can acknowledge that it's one of the most clever marketing strategies Aki-P came up with. What a better way to appeal to a fanbase than by giving them a little say in what goes on in the group's singles? Especially in a group so big, the Senbatsu elections were a genius idea. So back to the news: the preliminary results were announced a few days ago, a tally of the first-day votes for the girls who decided to participate in the election this year. Now there's a little saying I've learned to repeat whenever discussions about the prelims pops up and that saying is this:

IT'S ONLY THE FIRST DAY RESULTS.

I mean god damn do I see some people that flip their shit over the effing preliminary results. Said people are partially why I avoid forums and the comment sections of review sites around this time. It's like suddenly everyone begins theorizing and worrying and making sacrifices to imaginary idol gods as if to ensure their oshi will indeed get more votes. I mean seriously. Guys. Don't we have more dignity than this? Well, I will admit even I have gotten a little nervous in the past upon reading the preliminaries. While really that one day of results is only a small fraction of the time allotted to submit votes, it does give you an initial idea of where each girl stands. And it lets you know if your favorite even has a remote chance of making it into the single at all as well. But beyond that I've never really seen the preliminaries as nothing more than another pandering move to stir the fanbase up and convince fans that they need to buy more singles so they can gain more votes for their oshi. I have to admit, this year in particular I've been rather apathetic towards the Senbatsu election. Why the hell not? Akimoto Sayaka isn't participating, Minegishi Minami is screwed, and Masuda Yuka has long flown the coop. I know Mayuyu is going to rank high in Senbatsu so there's not really much left for me to get worked up about. This being my third Senbatsu election to follow, I thought I was pretty prepared for whatever shit went down once the prelims were out. Little did I know about the surprise that would be waiting for me when I woke up the next morning and saw the preliminary results had been posted. Who had ranked #1 on the first day? Not Yuko, not Mayuyu, not even Jurina but Sashihara Rino. I just... come again? Have I finally been transported to some parallel universe? Even now, I'm still scratching my head over the idea that Sasshi, the idol who had such an overblown scandal that she was booted to another group, managed to get the top spot on the first day. Even then, I wouldn't be so surprised if the other girls weren't too far behind, but no, Sasshi's votes are nearly double the amount Mayuyu has. As of the first day, Sasshi has roughly 28,000 votes and Mayuyu has 14,000.

Because accurate GIFs need to be shared.

So in order for say, Yuko or Mayuyu's wotas to even catch up to Sasshi's votes, they'd really have to haul ass to get those numbers, wouldn't they? Which knowing how devoted the fanbases of some idols can get, I'm more than certain is pretty possible. But for now, I've been mildly entertaining the thought of a Sasshi-centered single. I've never been a huge Sasshi fan but I feel like if I had paid more attention to her when she was actually getting a push I would have really liked her. Even though I think her solo song Soredemo Suki da yo is a horrendously bland and corny idol song, I can't help but admire her enthusiasm for idols. How enthusiastic is Sasshi towards idols? Well, she attended Tanaka Reina's graduation concert for one thing! I can always appreciate an idol when you can tell that visibly she enjoys what she does and Sasshi is the epitome of that, even after her scandal. Speaking of which, the fact that she managed to rank #1 in the prelims shows just how much she's bounced back from that alleged dating scandal of last year. Not only has Sasshi been spreading herself in HKT48 (being promoted to General Manager of the group) but she's even branched out to producing some SKE48 member for her solo debut. You can't deny that Sasshi's managed to handle the crap that's been thrown at her pretty well. What makes her prelim results even more astounding is the fact that after her scandal, she really wasn't that promoted Senbatsu-wise in AKB48. Sure, she was still there but compared to say, Shimazaki Haruka or Watanabe Mayu, Sasshi kind of got the shaft in some of AKB48's previous singles. Yet despite that, by either a fluke or a miracle, Sasshi's votes didn't go down for this election; they went up. As in 20,000 votes up. Personally, I wouldn't be more interested in Sasshi went on to win the election; not that I'm saying she will but if she did, it would be a pleasant surprise. I'm tired of the constant onslaught of Mayuyu and Paruru in the center; frankly, a new center would be refreshing. And maybe a song with a different center would get a song that doesn't suck so much...

Beyond Sasshi's surprising number of votes, there are a few other curveballs in the preliminary results this year. Mainly the fact that some of the most popular girls in AKB48 have fantastically low prelim numbers. Maybe their fanbases just have lazy voters who wait until the last minute to submit their votes? And I'm not talking about mildly popular members like Kitahara Rie and Miyazawa Sae, I'm talking Takahashi Minami and Shinoda Mariko. Members who have been staples of the group since its formation had astonishingly low first-day rankings this year. Again, did I wake up in a parallel universe where Mariko jumps from #6 to #15 and Takamina plummets from #5 to #18? And don't even get me started on Miichan, Kitarie and Akicha's votes. I know it's only the first-day results but I still can't believe how fantastically low the first-day results were for such popular members of AKB48. Something's up. Maybe the wotas just got too comfortable with when to vote but still... something about these results are a little unsettling. I mean, compare the prelims and final results of the 3rd and 4th elections. Notice how yes, some of the positions of certain girls did change, but for the most part, there weren't any drastic climbs or downfalls, especially in the actual Senbatsu. So the big question is if the results for the 5th elections are going to mirror the prelims. Because if so... this is going to be one strange Senbatsu. A Sashihara Rino-center flanked by Mayuyu and Yuko along with a handful of girls from groups outside of AKB48? It definitely sounds interesting. Of course, not all the popular girls took such a hard downfall; Yuko and Mayuyu and still going strong and as I predicted, Paruru and Jurina's votes went up as well. I'm not particularly surprised since they were all getting a painfully obvious push; I do wonder what their final results will be though and how much they'll have changed though.

Then there are the other surprising girls who did rank higher in Senbatsu; notice how half the girls who ranked in the top 16 for prelims aren't even from AKB48. I'm still not sure how I feel about this; I still kind of wish the Senbatsu was reserved only for AKB48 since it does feel really overcrowded now. Why not just give the sister groups their own separate Senbatsu elections? Oh right, because the cash cow gets more milk from one giant-ass Senbatsu featuring a bajillion girls from other groups that I don't know or care about. One of the most head-scratching ranks for me was Shibata Aya from SKE48, who managed to rank at #8 in the prelims. The weird thing is... when I looked up this chick, I saw that she'd never been in the Senbatsu for SKE48. So what on earth did she do to garner so many votes on the first day? I can understand Kizaki Yuria and Suda Akari; those two girls are at least part of the regular Senbatsu for SKE48. But how in the hell did Shibata Aya, this chick who hasn't been featured in Senbatsu period, rank higher than the both of them? How? Am I just missing something? Granted, I don't follow the girls of SKE48 that well so is this Shibata Aya chick just insanely popular among the fandom? Is she like the Sato Amina of SKE48? I don't want to dwell on it too long, but I do wonder if this chick's going to fall too far from her prelim results. Oh well, in the end all this prelim-related media is based mostly around speculation. There are still plenty more days of voting to come and plenty of more time for the ranks to change. Who knows? Maybe Yuko will climb back up to number 1 and order shall be (mostly) restored in the AKB48 fandom. I don't know; all I want is an AKB48 single that doesn't sound like some regurgitated crap I'd hear on a Janken song. And if Sasshi is the center that can give me a non-bland song well... let's just say I wouldn't be complaining. For now, here are my predictions for the final results of the 5th Senbatsu election:

1. Oshima Yuko
2. Sashihara Rino
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Shinoda Mariko
6. Kashiwagi Yuki
7. Takahashi Minami
8. Shimazaki Haruka
9. Itano Tomomi
10. Yokoyama Yui
11. Matsui Reina
12. Kojima Haruna
13. Watanabe Miyuki
14. Miyazawa Sae
15. Yamamoto Sayaka
16. Shibata Aya

More or less, you guys all know how I suck at making intentional predictions so I'd take mine with a grain of salt. I know I am! Now in a parallel universe where everything Nia wants in the idol industry happens (and Perfume is a critically acclaimed worldwide phenomenon) this is what I would want the Senbatsu to look like. Not that I'm saying it would in real life, but if I could elect the entire Senbatsu for the next single, these are the girls what I would want in it:

1. Minegishi Minami
2. Umeda Ayaka
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Iwasa Misaki
5. Sashihara Rino
6. Kawei Rina
7. Takahashi Minami
8. Fujie Reina
9. Matsui Jurina
10. Yokoyama Yui
11. Oota Aika
12. Oshima Yuko
13. Sato Sumire
14. Ichikawa Miori
15. Yamamoto Sayaka
16. Matsui Sakiko

That's just me but hey, are there any particular girls you guys would want in Senbatsu despite their actual chances of getting in being incredibly slim? Any girls you don't want in Senbatsu that will probably get in? I feel like this could be a poll, but it'd be way too big and complicated so I'll just leave this as an open-ended question!

Sunday, March 31, 2013

The Cash Cow Goes "Moo" (and Nia Goes "UGH")

Well Aki-P, I think this time around you have truly outdone yourself in making the most pointlessly complicated effort to milk more cash out of AKB48!

Akimoto Yasushi in duck form.

I mean, wow. I just... I am at a loss for words. Just when I thought that Aki-P and the rest of AKS wasn't desperate enough to cling to that goddamn million streak, this comes up. What am I talking about? Why, the Senbatsu Elections for the 32nd single, of course! Okay, I know the news about the Senbatsu Elections has been out for several days now but I wanted to cool off to a point where I could re-assess the announcement with a cool and rational mind. So a few days ago, an announcement was made that the 5th annual Senbatsu Elections this year would be different from the elections of the past four years. How so? Well, unlike the last four elections, in which every girl was automatically eligible for votes in the election regardless of her popularity in the group, now anyone who wants to participate in this year's elections has to apply to management be a candidate. From then on, management will decide the "candidates" for this year's elections and the fans will vote from the pool of candidates selected. The members eligible to apply for candidacy are anyone from AKB48, SKE48, NMB48 and HKT48. Members who transferred from one of these four groups into an overseas group (JKT48 or SNH48) are also allowed to apply for candidacy. 

And then there's one more little twist to this completely twisted Senbatsu Election. One more group of idols can apply for candidacy in this year's elections: any member of the group that has been in it for more than four years. Which means yes, graduated members can participate in this year's elections. I think my initial reaction to this news was... well, I may have grabbed a dictionary and banged my head against it, but my memory's a little fuzzy so who knows what the hell I did! Now, I have a combination of disbelief and disgust towards AKB48's management. I can't believe how blatant of an attempt this is to milk more money out of the fanbase and up the slowly dipping singles sales. I mean, it's so obvious why AKS is allowing graduated members a chance to participate in the elections. We all know that when they say members who've been in the group for more than four years, they're referring to one member in particular.


Maeda Atsuko, former ace of AKB48, now graduated and doing her own thing with acting and maintaining relevance despite being out of the group. We all know that Acchan's graduation was for better or worse, the end of an era and a huge turning point for AKB48. Ever since then, management's been floundering around and whipping out one gimmick after another to keep the post-Acchan singles sales afloat. Acchan's graduation had a huge affect on the group and has led to talks about AKB48 being on a decline. What a better way to keep AKB48 relevant than to bring back the ace that lead them through an era of prosperity and ridiculously high-selling singles? I think this aspect of the new election policy is what infuriates me the most; it's not that I don't like Acchan but come on, AKS. The girl graduated out of her own free will and she hasn't looked back since then! Trying to bring her back through some thinly veiled loophole you whipped up for this year's Senbatsu Elections is a desperate and pathetic grab for more money. Luckily Acchan, being the independent and amazing person she is, announced that she would not be applying for candidacy in the Senbatsu Elections. And you know what? Good for her! Good for her to unintentionally stick it to Aki-P and the rest of management and their pathetic attempt to lure her back into AKB48! 

Nito Moeno, Masuda Yuka, Nakaya Sayaka, Yonezawa Rumi, and Ono Erena and have also announced that they won't be applying for candidacy in this year's elections. In fact, the only two graduated members so far that have announced that they'll be participating are Urano Kazumi and Noro Kayo from SDN48. I guess I can kind of see why those two would want to since they got booted out of AKB48 into a group that only lasted for five singles. But I can't think they're going to rank very high if they even make it past the candidate selection. I'm hoping that most of the graduated members see past the bullshit of this new policy for Senbatsu Elections; the whole idea has just been leaving a bad taste in my mouth. I don't know, I feel like my disdain towards the new rules for the Senbatsu Elections partially stems from my own descent into the "disillusioned fan" phase of AKB48. I feel like everything they've been doing lately hasn't been boding well with me, from their music to their scandals to their graduations and now this.

I think another new aspect of the election that I'm 50/50 about is the new "candidacy" policy. When I first read about it, I didn't like it at all. But now I'm a little more split about it than before. On one hand, the idea that you have to apply for candidacy to be eligible for elections is a really good thing. Mainly because it sorts out the girls who don't want to participate in the elections, especially the more unpopular girls who know they're unpopular and don't want to sit through the humiliation or ranking low or not ranking at all. It makes the idea of running for Senbatsu optional so girls who don't want to take the time and effort into promoting themselves don't have to do so. But on the more negative side... a candidacy system basically allows AKS to do whatever the hell they want and stretch more control over the results of the elections. They can just reject the application of any girl they don't want ranking who applies for candidacy. They can hand-pick who they want to represent the Senbatsu and weed out anyone they don't think is going to rank well or anyone they just don't want to put the time and effort into promoting. The addition of the candidacy system makes the Senbatsu Elections rigged much more than it was before. 

I don't know how far AKS is going to stretch control over who gets to be a candidate and who doesn't for this year's Senbatsu, but I hope they let mostly everyone who wants to run in. I think it's just cruel to reject an application of a girl who's hoping and dreaming that maybe, just maybe she'll have the chance to rank in Senbatsu. All in all, the twists in this years Senbatsu Election feel like petty attempts to stir up drama and more attention for AKB48. I guess I can't complain too much since at least it isn't another overblown dating scandal... Still, if I had to pick between the new election policies and the old election policies, I'd just go with the latter. I already hate that the Senbatsu was trimmed down to 16... For now, the results of the actual Senbatsu Election are far away (not until June 8th to be exact) and until then all fans can do is theorize about who's in and who's out. So keeping in tradition with my predictions from last year, here's a looser and more ambiguous prediction of how I think the 2013 Senbatsu is going to turn out:

Girls Who I Think Are Going Up
- Shimazaki Haruka
- Matsui Jurina
- Yamamoto Sayaka
- Watanabe Miyuki
- Yokoyama Yui
- Oota Aika

Let me just say that Paruru going up in Senbatsu is inevitable, no matter how many fans hate her guts. She's had a major push in regular Senbatsu this year and a lot of hype and promotion in general is surrounding her. The question is how much will she go up. Don't forget that there was a time when Yokoyama Yui was getting just as much of a push as Paruru was but she only ranked #19 in the 2011 Senbatsu and #16 in the 2012 Senbatsu. Then again, I think Paruru's push is a bit more forceful than Yui's; Paruru's position in this year's Senbatsu Election is pretty ambiguous. Not to mention that to even make it into the Kami 7 Paruru would have to jump sixteen spots; I'm not saying it's impossible but it would be impressive! I also think that Matsui Jurina is probably going up this year but not by too much, maybe one to three spots up. She's been getting more-or-less the same attention in AKB48's Senbatsu that Paruru's gotten and she has a pretty popular fanbase as center of SKE48. Yamamoto Sayaka and Watanabe Miyuki are going to go up for the same reasons that Jurina's going up too: their NMB48 fanbase. The two of them are pretty much the double centers of that sister group; hell, even in last year's election they ranked right beside each other. 

Yokoyama Yui for more or less the same reasons will probably go up too but like Jurina, I don't think she'll got up by too much. For Lovetan, I do not think she's going to make it into Senbatsu but with a much better position in HKT48 than she ever had in AKB48, she has a pretty good chance of going up into Undergirls. Unlike her fellow AKB48 girls getting washed out in favor of a newer generation, I think Lovetan has a pretty good chance of at least ranking in some level of Senbatsu. Sasshi's position in HKT48 also could indicate her going up but when you also add that a scandal was the reason she ended up in the group, I think her position is probably gonna go down. Overall, I think the newer generations are going to go up in the election but not as much as some of the more pushed girls like Paruru and Jurina. Of course, that doesn't mean the older and popular girls are going down...

Girls Who I Think Will More or Less Stay in the Same Spots
- Oshima Yuko
- Watanabe Mayu
- Kashiwagi Yuki
- Shinoda Mariko
- Takahashi Minami
- Matsui Rena
- Kitahara Rie

...because a majority of the girls who I think are going to stay in the same spots are the older and popular girls! Notice how absolutely none of the girls in this list have been affected by scandals! I think it's pretty obvious that Yuko is going to be the one who takes #1 again in this year's Senbatsu. The votes between her and Mayuyu last year were in the tens of thousands and no matter how much Mayuyu's been pushed this year, that ain't changing. It's almost sad how easy it's going to be for Yuko to win without Acchan... it makes me miss Acchan again... Anyways! Of course, there's also the possibility that Yuko won't decide to run for Senbatsu. But I think even if she didn't want to, management would confront her in a darkly lit room and pressure her into running anyways, talking about "an offer you can't refuse." Funny how I've been picturing AKS as the mafia lately... I'd put Mayuyu in the list of girls who I think are going up but since she's already been at #2 it's kind of hard to go any further up unless Yuko pulls out of Senbatsu Elections. Should Yuko by some miraculous means decide not to run in the Senbatsu this year, I think Mayuyu has a pretty good chance of ranking first in the elections, especially with her push to a more center role lately. But since that's likely not going to happen, I say Mayuyu stays at #2. 

I also think that Yukirin has a pretty good chance of staying at #3, especially since I'm certain the release of her solo single probably helped gain a few fans. I've always kind of noticed that Yukirin never gets much of a push in AKB48 singles yet somehow she still has a pretty strong fanbase despite having the personality of a Trefoil Girl Scout cookie. I don't know, her popularity just bamboozles me. Takamina and Mariko are absolutely staying in the same spots for pretty much the reasons that they're older members and they both have pretty strong presences in AKB48. With Takamina as captain of the whole group and Mariko as captain of Team A and their long-standing popularity, I think this year's Senbatsu will keep them in pretty much the same spots as last year. Then again, Takamina's solo single might help her get a few more votes... Rena and Kitarie have always had pretty steady positions in Senbatsu so I don't think their positions will change too much either.

Girls Who I think Are Going Down
- Umeda Ayaka
- Akimoto Sayaka
- Itano Tomomi
- Kojima Haruka
- Kasai Tomomi
- Minegishi Minami
- Sashihara Rino
- Miyazawa Sae

And then there are the unlucky girls who I think are going down. It doesn't mean that they will go down in spots for this year's Senbatsu Elections, but if they did, I wouldn't be surprised. I just want to say that overall, I think that with this year's elections, a lot of the older and less popular members of AKB48 are going down or just flat-out not ranking at all in this year's elections. With many more sisters groups participating in the elections and the flooding of more popular girls from those groups, it's a lot harder to rank in the Senbatsu Elections than it used to be. In the place of the older generation, I think the younger generation is going to take up a lot more spots; even last year, Undergirls was dominated by SKE48 members! I guess I'm not as upset as I used to be about the merging of other group members into AKB48 activities but I kind of wish sometimes that AKB48's Senbatsu Elections were restricted to only AKB48 members, especially with the staggering numbers of girls in sister groups. Still, that's never happening as long as the inclusion of SKE48, NMB48, HKT48, JKT48, WTF48, and SNH48 make AKS money.

So yeah, I could make a much longer list of girls that I think are going down and/or out of the Elections but since I don't even know half the names/faces of the girls in AKB48, I'm just gonna stick to the girls who rank in the Senbatsu Elections more regularly. And as much as I hate to admit it, three of my favorite members are probably going down: Umechan, Sayaka, and Miichan. I kind of expected Akimoto Sayaka to go down since management doesn't give a shit about her anymore but I really don't want Umechan or Miichan to go down. My hope is that all three of them will at least get to stay in Undergirls and that Undergirls will get an awesome song that's completely and totally better than the Senbatsu song! But I can only dream. As for Miichan, I'm just hoping that she'll be able to participate this year after being demoted to Kenkyuusei. Speaking of scandal's I think Sasshi's is going to make her go down a little bit, but not by much. She'll probably at least stay in the top ten! Kasai Tomomi's probably going to plummet... just like her career! Tomochin, Harunyan and Sae are probably going down just because they haven't really been doing much; even Sae got booted out of the regular Senbatsu.

Now watch me be completely wrong about all these predictions! Well, the Senbatsu Elections are a long ways away and there's a whole lot more to go on in-between now and the time of the elections. There's a whole summer PV I'm gonna tear into review when it comes out! All I can hope is that this year's summer song will be at least half decent as Manatsu no Sounds good! And preferably not bland. But the boat's kind of sailed on my expectations for a not-bland AKB48 A-side lately...